There is
no standard answer to this question as evaluation,
much like beauty, is in the
eye of the beholder. Making
films and TV shows is an art form that was born in
the
Twentieth Century.
Every project is a world unto itself.
The experts can
look at a treatment, a script or package
deal for a film or TV show and
make an
educated guess
what the marketplace will yield. At best,
like a good
baseball
hitter, they guess right thirty percent of the time.
If its
a TV show, will it be scheduled in a good time slot,
on a hot or cold network?
Will it be pre-empted by world
events and lost in the shuffle? All of these
things have a
direct bearing on the projects ultimate success. As with
every
other kind of artistic endeavor, once a product is
delivered to the
marketplace, everything else is outside
of their control.
A movie
producer figures out what a project is going to cost,
raises the money, gets it
produced and then waits. You need
to have a divining rod when selecting
projects, as it will be six
months to two years before the audience finally
gets to see it.
Will todays hot topic still be relevant? Will the critics be
kind or take pot shots at it? Will it be properly promoted in
an increasingly
crowded field? With a theatrical movie, its
a one shot deal: all the eggs in
one opening weekend basket.
Theres a quick hook waiting for a film that
doesnt perform
as expected.
Execs
yank a new TV series off the air after two or three
episodes if it doesnt
immediately attract the anticipated
audience. Back in the old days, a show was
on the
schedule for an entire season of 26 39 episodes until
people got used
to it and knew where and when to look
for it. All In The Family and Seinfeld
are only two
examples of mega-hit series that wouldnt have made
it in todays
hair trigger climate. Sometimes a TV show
deserves a second, third and fourth
chance until the actors
settle into their roles and the writers find their
voices.
On a
daily basis during the actual production period, the
producer gets to referee
the ongoing battle between the
Show vs. the Business. Sometimes the producer
decides
in favor of art over commerce and fights with the studio/
financier for
a little more time and money to make
something better. Then there is the prick bastard
producer
hired by the studio to ride herd over a group of profligate
kids who
pulls the plug just as a climactic moment is about
to be shot and doesnt
really care about anything other than
the bottom line. The director yells at
you because he or she
didnt get all the coverage they needed to complete the
scene.
The creative producer diplomatically points out that if they
had been
better at clock management or hadnt screwed
around on a particular scene
earlier in the day or were
unwilling to compromise their creative vision, they
wouldve finished within the agreed upon time frame and
gotten the days work
in the can.
When big
egos are involved and you dont own or happen
to be related to someone who owns
the studio, the producer
becomes the referee who tries to call a fair game. You
know
going into the enterprise that its going to be rough going and
theres a
good chance you will be a casualty. When its a big
time feature film director,
fugetaboutit. They have the power
to pretty much do whatever they want, the
budget be damned.
They often operate under the Eric Von Stroheim philosophy
of
not-so-secretly wanting to bankrupt any company that is
myopic enough to hire
them. The business be damned
because they are only interested in making art.
If you
have gone a little bit over budget, the financiers
grumble but all is forgiven
if the audience loves the show.
If the show doesnt find its intended audience
and the
producer brought it in under budget, they want to know,
Why didnt you
spend the damn money and make it
better? If the show turns out poorly and
went terribly
over budget, the not-so-subtle message is get out of
here and
dont darken our doorway again. One way
or another, if things go wrong it is
usually the
producers fault. They are the most convenient
scapegoat and
someone must be blamed.
Art
is an amazing game. Nobodys right and nobodys
wrong and everyone has an
opinion. One mans junk is
another mans fortune. What somebody is willing to
pay for something
isnt always an accurate reflection of
what its really worth. The perceived
value or the previous
success of the evaluator is often what drives the
marketplace.
The
audience doesnt know how much the average
movie-of-the-week or TV show costs,
nor should they
care. It doesnt matter to them that the star had
pneumonia,
bad weather washed away the sets or the
director was going through a messy
divorce and had a
drinking problem. These are the producers problem.
All that
matters at the end of the day is did the project
live up to its promise? Was
the audience satisfied? Youll
certainly never find out by thinking about it.
Sooner or
later, somebody has to take the plunge and commit to
financing this
risky art form.
There
are only two ways to win with any project at
the
box
office or attracting
critical acclaim and the
two
rarely
coincide. Titanic was originally budgeted
at $100 million. There was much
howling and gnashing
of teeth when the film approached the $200 million
mark.
The critics and naysayers had their knives out.
The pundits and rumor- mongers
had a
field day about the impending disaster. Leo who? Kate
what? Where are the
big stars? Not since Heavens
Gate
had a studio been so hornswoggled. It was a
debacle akin to Sewards Folly,
the purchase
of Alaska for $19 million, and look how they both
turned out.
To
date, Titanic has grossed over $2 Billion, the biggest
film gross in the history of the cinema. Who knew?
Certainly not the so-called experts. Each studio would
love to have one of
those projects impact its bottom
line every year and be more than happy to go
through
the birth pains. Thats if the return on investment (ROI)
could be
guaranteed. Just because you spend big money
on a project doesnt guarantee
its going to work. A great
opening weekend doesnt always mean the studio will
ever see a profit on a particular film. If it doesnt have
legs, if it
doesnt stay in the theaters very long because
the word of mouth has killed it,
a mega budget film
can go down in flames just like a an ultra low budget
film.
The audience doesnt really care how much it cost
only if it lived up to its
billing.
Every year a couple of small independent films break
out of the pack and flies in the face of conventional
thinking. The following
films, and many more, were
produced outside of the studio system for budgets
less than $2,000,000.
Some have won Academy Awards.
Some
have spawned film sequels or successful TV series. An
independent producer had
an idea or found a script they fell
in love with, raised the money and without
the oversight
committee watering down the premise, went off and
produced a
little gem of a movie. Next, they had to find a
distributor with some guts who
was willing to spend money
on a speculative venture call the P&A fund
(prints and
advertising). The average film print costs under 1500.
The lions
share of the P&A money goes for buying thirty
and sixty second TV spots and
a couple of ads in the trade
papers to let everyone know that the movie exists.
Once in the marketplace word of mouth, the absolute
best
form of advertising, kicked in and the audiences lined up
around the block
to see these micro-budget movies. These
films not only proved to be very
profitable but also launched
the careers of many big stars and directors:
|
Halloween
|
Rocky
|
|
Friday
the 13th
|
Enter
the Dragon
|
|
Evil
Dead
|
Mean
Streets
|
|
Napoleon
Dynamite
|
Night
of the Living Dead
|
|
Nightmare on ElmStreet
|
American
Graffiti
|
|
The
Full Monty
|
Dirty
Dancing
|
|
The
Great Santini
|
Groove
Tube
|
|
Eraserhead
|
Blood
Simple
|
|
Good
Guys Wear Black
|
Strictly
Ballroom
|
|
Pieces
of April
|
Slingblade
|
|
Tadpole
|
Porkys
|
|
Blair
Witch Project
|
Whale
Rider
|
With the
healthy profits involved with a successful small film,
you would think the
studios would set up an extremely low
budget film production division to make a
handful of these
little gems a year. They dont and probably never will
because
the aforementioned films didnt fit the formula
divined by Studio Market
Research. Little films represent
pure risk because they dont involve
well-defined
commodities whose potential in the marketplace can be
pre-determined. Hell, we could lose our shirt on this one!
As the average
studio film now costs over million, a
micro budget division could take
thirty swings at the ball
each year and one home run would pay for everything.